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	<title>
	Comments on: Random Luck	</title>
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	<link>https://afkgamer.github.io/afkgamer-com/archives/2005/01/24/random-luck/</link>
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				<title>
				By: Pr0grammzor				</title>
				<link>https://afkgamer.github.io/afkgamer-com/archives/2005/01/24/random-luck/comment-page-1/#comment-218</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Pr0grammzor]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Feb 2005 15:56:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://afkgamer.github.io/afkgamer-com/archives/2005/01/24/random-luck/#comment-218</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[Speaking as a professional software developer, it&#039;s highly unlikely that Blizzard even wrote their rand() function.  It&#039;s probably one in a standard library that is used in a million different applications and has been thoroughly tested (and quite probably mathematically proven) to deliver reliably random numbers.  (As someone said, it really is pseudo-random, but for all practical purposes there&#039;s no difference.)

I don&#039;t discount the possibility of a hack, but it is far more likely that someone is griping about someone else&#039;s lucky streak.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Speaking as a professional software developer, it&#8217;s highly unlikely that Blizzard even wrote their rand() function.  It&#8217;s probably one in a standard library that is used in a million different applications and has been thoroughly tested (and quite probably mathematically proven) to deliver reliably random numbers.  (As someone said, it really is pseudo-random, but for all practical purposes there&#8217;s no difference.)</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t discount the possibility of a hack, but it is far more likely that someone is griping about someone else&#8217;s lucky streak.</p>
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				<title>
				By: Stampie				</title>
				<link>https://afkgamer.github.io/afkgamer-com/archives/2005/01/24/random-luck/comment-page-1/#comment-217</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Stampie]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Feb 2005 14:24:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://afkgamer.github.io/afkgamer-com/archives/2005/01/24/random-luck/#comment-217</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[Some of you seem to be labouring under the impression that the odds of rolling 100 increases as you roll more. This isn&#039;t true. The chance of rolling 100 will always be 1 in 100, regardless of how many times you roll.

That being said, random numbers generated by a computer are not truely random, but rather &#039;pseudo-random.&#039; A computer will take a list of numbers and use some sort of algorithm combining those and some large variable, such as the number of seconds since midnight, and then spit out a result.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Some of you seem to be labouring under the impression that the odds of rolling 100 increases as you roll more. This isn&#8217;t true. The chance of rolling 100 will always be 1 in 100, regardless of how many times you roll.</p>
<p>That being said, random numbers generated by a computer are not truely random, but rather &#8216;pseudo-random.&#8217; A computer will take a list of numbers and use some sort of algorithm combining those and some large variable, such as the number of seconds since midnight, and then spit out a result.</p>
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				<title>
				By: WoW_haxor				</title>
				<link>https://afkgamer.github.io/afkgamer-com/archives/2005/01/24/random-luck/comment-page-1/#comment-214</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[WoW_haxor]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Feb 2005 00:21:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://afkgamer.github.io/afkgamer-com/archives/2005/01/24/random-luck/#comment-214</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[Rolling multiple 100s in a row, while infuriating if you&#039;re not the one doing it, is not a sign of a broken random number generator. Consider the probabilites:

chance of rolling a 100: 1 in 100 (duh)
chance of rolling 2 100s in a row: 1 in 10,000
chance of rolling 3 100s a row: 1 in 1,000,000
chance of rolling 2 100s in 10 rolls (not necessarily consecutive): 1 in 1,000

Now, given that there are hundreds of thousands of players playing WoW every day, and that a good percent of them are rolling at some point in that day each of these has a high probability of happening at least once a day, if not multiple times (especially the last one).

The probability of rolling a 24, 46, 49, 12 in a row is 1 in 100,000,000 but you dont&#039; hear anyone writing about it because they didn&#039;t lose a chance to get their &#039;uber rod of dung-spewing (+3 to fairy damage)&#039;. It&#039;s a fact of human nature that you&#039;ll usually hear the complaints first and loudest.

Now consider this: WoW is one of the most complicated pieces of software around. The detractors can complain all they want, but that doesn&#039;t change the fact that it&#039;s a highly complicated system: the system maintains the state of a persistent online world with thousands of people running around, buying, kill, farming, auctioning in real-time all the while maintaining world integrity by fending off would be hackers (Blizzard has learned plenty about this from previous games). Throw in a rich 3D user interface and a good dose of chaotic human behavior and it&#039;s a wonder the system works. My reason for explaining this? If Blizzard can create said system don&#039;t you think they can create a random number generator? Don&#039;t you think they tested that piece? Don&#039;t you think they&#039;d safeguard it from hackers since it&#039;s so important (not to mention obvious to would be hackers)?

So lets do some more probabilities:

Chance Blizzard messed up rand(): highly unlikely
Chance some hackor, hacked it: very highly unlikely
Chance we&#039;re all just reading complaints from a handful of gamers who happened to be see a couple hundred rolls: 1 out of 1]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Rolling multiple 100s in a row, while infuriating if you&#8217;re not the one doing it, is not a sign of a broken random number generator. Consider the probabilites:</p>
<p>chance of rolling a 100: 1 in 100 (duh)<br />
chance of rolling 2 100s in a row: 1 in 10,000<br />
chance of rolling 3 100s a row: 1 in 1,000,000<br />
chance of rolling 2 100s in 10 rolls (not necessarily consecutive): 1 in 1,000</p>
<p>Now, given that there are hundreds of thousands of players playing WoW every day, and that a good percent of them are rolling at some point in that day each of these has a high probability of happening at least once a day, if not multiple times (especially the last one).</p>
<p>The probability of rolling a 24, 46, 49, 12 in a row is 1 in 100,000,000 but you dont&#8217; hear anyone writing about it because they didn&#8217;t lose a chance to get their &#8216;uber rod of dung-spewing (+3 to fairy damage)&#8217;. It&#8217;s a fact of human nature that you&#8217;ll usually hear the complaints first and loudest.</p>
<p>Now consider this: WoW is one of the most complicated pieces of software around. The detractors can complain all they want, but that doesn&#8217;t change the fact that it&#8217;s a highly complicated system: the system maintains the state of a persistent online world with thousands of people running around, buying, kill, farming, auctioning in real-time all the while maintaining world integrity by fending off would be hackers (Blizzard has learned plenty about this from previous games). Throw in a rich 3D user interface and a good dose of chaotic human behavior and it&#8217;s a wonder the system works. My reason for explaining this? If Blizzard can create said system don&#8217;t you think they can create a random number generator? Don&#8217;t you think they tested that piece? Don&#8217;t you think they&#8217;d safeguard it from hackers since it&#8217;s so important (not to mention obvious to would be hackers)?</p>
<p>So lets do some more probabilities:</p>
<p>Chance Blizzard messed up rand(): highly unlikely<br />
Chance some hackor, hacked it: very highly unlikely<br />
Chance we&#8217;re all just reading complaints from a handful of gamers who happened to be see a couple hundred rolls: 1 out of 1</p>
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				<title>
				By: Marshall				</title>
				<link>https://afkgamer.github.io/afkgamer-com/archives/2005/01/24/random-luck/comment-page-1/#comment-208</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Marshall]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Feb 2005 02:27:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://afkgamer.github.io/afkgamer-com/archives/2005/01/24/random-luck/#comment-208</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[The Gatherer mod was developed to track the location of mined herbs and minerals, orginally.  It was later expanded to track chests and other &quot;openable&quot; objects, since they were easy to track.  There has been some debate about the ethics of using a mod that tracks chests, or other objects that are intended to be visually scanned for.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Gatherer mod was developed to track the location of mined herbs and minerals, orginally.  It was later expanded to track chests and other &#8220;openable&#8221; objects, since they were easy to track.  There has been some debate about the ethics of using a mod that tracks chests, or other objects that are intended to be visually scanned for.</p>
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				<title>
				By: stef				</title>
				<link>https://afkgamer.github.io/afkgamer-com/archives/2005/01/24/random-luck/comment-page-1/#comment-207</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[stef]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Feb 2005 01:44:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://afkgamer.github.io/afkgamer-com/archives/2005/01/24/random-luck/#comment-207</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[???]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>???</p>
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				<title>
				By: Foton of AFKGamer				</title>
				<link>https://afkgamer.github.io/afkgamer-com/archives/2005/01/24/random-luck/comment-page-1/#comment-204</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Foton of AFKGamer]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Feb 2005 01:08:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://afkgamer.github.io/afkgamer-com/archives/2005/01/24/random-luck/#comment-204</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[I didn&#039;t even know such a thing existed, but I&#039;m sure going to give it a try.  Sounds great.

From what I read, it shows where you previously have gathered items (or if you installed someone else&#039;s gather stats, where they previously gathered).  As opposed to showing you what has spawned currently?

In the situation I witnessed, the Loly type bypassed closer possible spawn points for the chests and went directly (and correctly) to the actual spawn.

I&#039;m going to try that mod either way, but if it tracks the current spawns, rather than just possible spawn points, that would be the bomb.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I didn&#8217;t even know such a thing existed, but I&#8217;m sure going to give it a try.  Sounds great.</p>
<p>From what I read, it shows where you previously have gathered items (or if you installed someone else&#8217;s gather stats, where they previously gathered).  As opposed to showing you what has spawned currently?</p>
<p>In the situation I witnessed, the Loly type bypassed closer possible spawn points for the chests and went directly (and correctly) to the actual spawn.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m going to try that mod either way, but if it tracks the current spawns, rather than just possible spawn points, that would be the bomb.</p>
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				<title>
				By: Marshall				</title>
				<link>https://afkgamer.github.io/afkgamer-com/archives/2005/01/24/random-luck/comment-page-1/#comment-202</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Marshall]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Feb 2005 00:31:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://afkgamer.github.io/afkgamer-com/archives/2005/01/24/random-luck/#comment-202</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[I use a UI customisation that tracks the locations of chests, minerals, herbs, clams, etc... on my map.  It&#039;s called gatherer, and has been widely discussed on the UI forums.  I can see chests that have spawned on the other side of walls, as well as their position when they are not spawned.

I imagine that Loly was using this mod or something similar.  Use of a legit mod like this doesn&#039;t mean Loly&#039;s not a gold farmer, however.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I use a UI customisation that tracks the locations of chests, minerals, herbs, clams, etc&#8230; on my map.  It&#8217;s called gatherer, and has been widely discussed on the UI forums.  I can see chests that have spawned on the other side of walls, as well as their position when they are not spawned.</p>
<p>I imagine that Loly was using this mod or something similar.  Use of a legit mod like this doesn&#8217;t mean Loly&#8217;s not a gold farmer, however.</p>
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				<title>
				By: Dude				</title>
				<link>https://afkgamer.github.io/afkgamer-com/archives/2005/01/24/random-luck/comment-page-1/#comment-197</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dude]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Feb 2005 23:14:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://afkgamer.github.io/afkgamer-com/archives/2005/01/24/random-luck/#comment-197</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[You want a screenshot as proof?  Sure, let me just fire up Photoshop and you&#039;ll have your proof right away that I rolled 103 (1-100) five times in a row.  Now a video cap might be more believable, but screen shots are easily forged.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You want a screenshot as proof?  Sure, let me just fire up Photoshop and you&#8217;ll have your proof right away that I rolled 103 (1-100) five times in a row.  Now a video cap might be more believable, but screen shots are easily forged.</p>
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				<title>
				By: Byron Ellacott				</title>
				<link>https://afkgamer.github.io/afkgamer-com/archives/2005/01/24/random-luck/comment-page-1/#comment-110</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Byron Ellacott]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Jan 2005 00:09:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://afkgamer.github.io/afkgamer-com/archives/2005/01/24/random-luck/#comment-110</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[From what I&#039;ve read, the problem is not with the loot oriented dice roll, which is done server side, but with the &quot;/random 100&quot; command, which may be done server side, but appears to other group members as &quot;Futon rolled 98 (1-100).&quot;  The trouble is, &quot;/me rolled 99 (1-100).&quot; also appears the same way.  No special hack software needed.

Unless someone can show me screenshots of someone cheating the grouploot dice roll, I&#039;ll have to consider this no big deal.  Group with people you trust, or ungroup people who won&#039;t play nice.  Social solutions to social problems.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From what I&#8217;ve read, the problem is not with the loot oriented dice roll, which is done server side, but with the &#8220;/random 100&#8221; command, which may be done server side, but appears to other group members as &#8220;Futon rolled 98 (1-100).&#8221;  The trouble is, &#8220;/me rolled 99 (1-100).&#8221; also appears the same way.  No special hack software needed.</p>
<p>Unless someone can show me screenshots of someone cheating the grouploot dice roll, I&#8217;ll have to consider this no big deal.  Group with people you trust, or ungroup people who won&#8217;t play nice.  Social solutions to social problems.</p>
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				<title>
				By: Chris				</title>
				<link>https://afkgamer.github.io/afkgamer-com/archives/2005/01/24/random-luck/comment-page-1/#comment-109</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Chris]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Jan 2005 11:18:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://afkgamer.github.io/afkgamer-com/archives/2005/01/24/random-luck/#comment-109</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[My wife logged into her Hunter last night in time to catch the tail end of a conversation in guild.  It appears that a former guildmate, grouped with a couple guildies and others who quit, is using a random hack to win all the loot rolls.  Two things prompted this discovery:  he never rolls under a 90, and he is always the last to roll.  But then he&#039;s the priest in group, and they&#039;re in Blackrock Spire, so he&#039;s got them by the shorthairs.

If you&#039;re playing on Lothar, watch out for Anesthesia.  He&#039;s not just whiny, he&#039;s also really bad at disguising his use of hacks.

And shame on you, Blizzard, for trusting &lt;b&gt;anything&lt;/b&gt; the comes from the client.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My wife logged into her Hunter last night in time to catch the tail end of a conversation in guild.  It appears that a former guildmate, grouped with a couple guildies and others who quit, is using a random hack to win all the loot rolls.  Two things prompted this discovery:  he never rolls under a 90, and he is always the last to roll.  But then he&#8217;s the priest in group, and they&#8217;re in Blackrock Spire, so he&#8217;s got them by the shorthairs.</p>
<p>If you&#8217;re playing on Lothar, watch out for Anesthesia.  He&#8217;s not just whiny, he&#8217;s also really bad at disguising his use of hacks.</p>
<p>And shame on you, Blizzard, for trusting <b>anything</b> the comes from the client.</p>
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